Film For Thought correctly predicted that Parasite would win Best Picture in 2019, but while many of the acting and craft categories can be generally easier to predict, Best Picture is notoriously harder to nail down correctly due to a confluence of factors including; campaign momentum, the cultural zeitgeist, preferential voting and – specific to this year with Emilia Perez – the knock on effects of cancel culture. Film For Thought outlines the best bets for the Oscar wins this year.
Best Picture – Anora
Best Picture is the one award that is calculated on a preferential voting system which requires all Academy members to rank their favourites in order from best to worst. But this preferential voting approach was not always the case. Preferential voting was initially implemented between 1934 and 1945, but since the days of Casablanca (1945), Best Picture voting moved to a popular ballot, in line with all other voting branches of the Academy. In 2009 however when Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight was not nominated for Best Picture despite achieving the holy grail of winning critical praise and box office success, it sent shockwaves through the Academy which instigated the change and enlarged the category. The change in voting systems does allow for a widely liked and deserving film to break through to Best Picture glory which is undoubtedly positive. When it comes to the expansion of the Best Picture category, most years generally follow the same format in that while there are around 10 films nominated, only about three or four are in serious contention. Now that Emilia Perez is out of the game, this year… will it be A, B or C? Anora, The Brutalist or Conclave. BAFTA awarded Conclave its Best Film award in a relative upset last week, but BAFTA can sometimes be a red herring that isn’t always indicative. It is a very tight race, and don’t believe enough people were actually telling the truth that they watched all three hours and thirty five minutes of The Brutalist, but I do think Anora is more of an accessible film. Film For Thought wishes that The Brutalist will get it, but fears that the accessibility of Anora will pip the 3 and a half hour long saga to the post.
Best Director – The Brutalist
The unintended consequence from the change in voting types is the infamous ‘split’ we have seen in recent years between Best Picture and Best Director. Prior to 2009 it was commonplace to award the two to the same film in harmony as a result of popular votes. After this change however, it is more common to see the ‘split’ in awards as the voting approaches show up in the results which actually was a regular occurence pre-1945. Film for Thought fully believes Due to the infamous split, it’s likely that the Academy will award Brady Corbet for his efforts in The Brutalist via Best Director.
Best Actress – Demi Moore
Mikey Madison winning in London for BAFTA isn’t going to throw a spanner in the works of the Best Actress Oscar. Demi Moore simply isn’t going to lose on Hollywood Boulevard this year. With a very well-rehearsed Golden Globes speech about being overlooked for years as a ‘popcorn actress’ she is almost certain to walk away with the top award. With little hesitation, Film For Thought believes it will be Demi Moore for The Substance.
Best Actor – Adrien Brody
God love Timothee Chalamet. He has been everywhere, including arriving at the London premiere on a Lime bike, getting a £75 fine for doing so. He has been on every podcast on each side of the political spectrum and he has been at this for months. But despite all this, he is still a young ingenue and if he wins he would be the youngest Best Actor win ever. The Academy are hesitant to award Best Actor to a younger person as they have to earn their keep. It is looking very likely that Adrien Brody for his extraordinary turn in The Brutalist is going to see him come away with the Best Actor award.
FILM FOR THOUGHT 